This post was a team effort by Tom Bennett, Brian Kotlyar, Lauren Picarello, Joe Pinaire, Kate Rush Sheehy, Allison Squires, and Ellen Westcott.
Here at Dachis Group, we’re putting our Social Business Index (SBI) through its paces tracking hot social topics and testing for compelling output around big brands. With Black Friday looming large, we’re using it as a unique opportunity to spot trends and test the rapid insight gathering capability of the tool. From the huge volume of data we’re surfacing, we can identify trends, frequency, volume, and accurately gauge sentiment from tone and word usage. In preparation for every retailer’s favorite holiday (and one of their biggest money makers of the year), we’ve plucked a few interesting nuggets around some of the largest retailers that were hidden in the cornucopia of big data in the SBI.
Consumer sentiment directly correlates to opening hours.
On Black Friday stores look to get ahead by opening with earlier than normal operating hours. For some families, waking up in the pre-dawn hours and preparing for Black Friday sales has become as much of a tradition as turkey and stuffing. The bargain that retailers and shoppers appears to have struck is this: retailers trade longer hours and better prices for an uptick in store traffic while shoppers trade sleep and sometimes their dignity for a good deal. Thus it has been and thus it could have continued… but not this year.
This year many stores have decided to open early. Really early. As in, while the pie is still warm and distant cousins are still arguing early. The consumer reaction has been muddled to say the least. There has been a huge increase in discussion in social media surrounding Black Friday store opening hours this year, but sentiment has been mixed.
Dachis Group sourced data from the SBI to identify exactly what was going on. Specifically, we wanted to know if there is a pattern in the consumer discussion surrounding Black Friday opening hours and the most talked about brands. The answer is yes, there is.
When the data for retailers regarding Black Friday opening hours is viewed in aggregate a pattern emerges: the closer a brand stays true to traditional Black Friday hours, the more positive the conversation. As you can see below, stores like Newton Holdings LLC (Neiman Marcus) or PetSmart score very positively on the sentiment scale with openings at 9am and 7am respectively. Meanwhile, on the negative side of the spectrum, we see the companies that are opening at midnight and 10PM the night before. In fact, not one company that opens before midnight has a positive sentiment around their brand discussion for Black Friday opening times.
Does this mean that consumers will vote for pies and pillows and stay home? Or will a good deal turn out even the grumpiest of consumers? We will see once the final scores have been tallied up this weekend.
The Top 10 most-discussed retailers dominate 73% of all Black Friday retail signal.
As excitement, anticipation, (and maybe a little irritation) mounts, so has the volume of Black Friday signal sent out by brands and consumers. Signal is defined as a single micropost, comment, blog post, retweet etc. from an account in the ecosystem of a brand. These are typically generated as part of a conversation (set of signals) involving the brand. In this case, there has been a tremendous amount of signal generated that pertains to Black Friday. Brands have recognized that their audiences are hungry for more than just turkey or stuffing and have fed their audiences’ appetite to learn more about deals and store details.
In our set of 34 Consumer, Department and Variety Retail Stores, there are about 48,000 signals around America’s favorite retail holiday. There is a definite princes and paupers theme emerging in terms of share of signal across holiday retailers. The Top 10 companies (see chart below) drove an impressive 73% of total signal, while the remaining 24 brands (e.g. Home Depot, J.C. Penney, Game Stop) combined to makeup just 27%.
Within the set of the Top 10 stores, Best Buy and Wal-Mart are the front-runners in driving Black Friday signal, accounting for 18% and 12% of the buzz respectively. We think it’s important to note that they are also the retailers with the most big ticket electronics on sale this holiday season.
Next, Target, Sears, and Toys “R” US combine to account for 27% of the signal, with each carrying 9% of the load and each promoting their Black Friday deals heavily, but with fewer and/or lower ticket items than Best Buy or Walmart. The final five stores, which are nearly all specialty stores (i.e. Nordstrom, PetSmart, Foot Locker, Kohls, and Newton) combine to account for the remaining 16% of the holiday signal.
Where this data gets really interesting is the culmination of share of conversation data, juxtaposed against the emergent “hot products” for each retailer – the marshmallows to our proverbial sweet potatoes.
So, what’s hot by retailer?
1. Best Buy
Hot products: Blackberry, CityVille, music, movie, Call of Duty, camera, iPhone, tablet
Tech products and movies dominate Best Buy’s buzz this year. What is more interesting to note is a secondary conversation about Harry Potter, which is fitting given that the final installment in the wizarding saga hit theaters this summer and was recently released on DVD. The movie is featured on Best Buy’s Black Friday ad and is also prominently displayed on the retailer’s Facebook page. Independent of Best Buy’s activities, Harry Potter is sure to be on many holiday gift lists this year, but in a savvy move Best Buy successfully inserted itself into the conversation. (By the way, if you’re interested, the retailer will be selling the newly released Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows for just $9.99 on Black Friday.)
2. Walmart
Hot products: Battlefield 3, Xbox with Kinect, Android , Fischer Price Love to Play Puppy, Yamaha
Wal-mart is using a large selection of great deals on electronics to solidify its position as a stiff competitor to Best Buy and Target on Black Friday. In light of this, the hot products we identified should come as no surprise. Battlefield 3, Xbox with Kinect, and Android phones top the list. While Wal-mart has widely promoted several of it’s Black Friday exclusives, the tech goods have gained the most traction. Android was a surprise addition to Wal-mart’s list since they don’t typically dominate mobile product buzz. Several retailers have Friday specials on mobile devices, but only Walmart can claim Android as one of their hot products. Why? According to several industry bloggers, Android Black Friday deals aren’t that great this year, but Walmart boasts a $49.99 no-contract, Samsung Galaxy Prevail – thereby setting the brand apart from the pack. Now, you’ll have no excuse for not returning your relatives’ calls this season.
3. Target
Hot products: boots, jeans , pants , sweater , dress , jacket, Harajuku Mini, beauty bag
Target’s hot products signal centers around apparel this year. This comes as a surprise given that Target, much like Walmart and Best Buy, features and promotes a significant number of electronics in their Black Friday portfolio.
The surprising focus on apparel rather than electronics may be explained by Target’s recent promotion of their Harajuku Mini design partnership with Gwen Stefani and a widely discussed ‘Buy One Get One’ promotion on women’s apparel. We anticipate the buzz will swing heavily this week as the Black Friday electronics engine comes into full force to drown out talk of sweaters and jeggings (which we’ll need after all the turkey on Thanksgiving).
4. Sears
Hot products: BluRay, Blackberry Playbook, iPod
Sears is building buzz for its products by providing early deals, tips and creative advice for holiday shoppers on its social media properties. This is a great example from the Sears Facebook page.
In fact, Sears is enlisting bloggers this year to build buzz for its electronics. It appears that the initiative is working as Blu-Ray players, Blackberry Playbooks and iPods are showing up as the most talked about Sears products.
5. Toys “R” Us
Hot products: toys, baby, dolls, lego, action figures, Animal Planet, cars, construction set, books, Crayola, Star Wars, LeapFrog, Monster High
Toys “R” Us is among the group of retailers that made the controversial decision to open their doors pre-Black Friday; the store will open at 9 p.m. on Thanksgiving. Although the store will not release its Black Friday deals until the day before Thanksgiving, customers can catch a sneak preview by visiting the Toys “R” Us Facebook page. Of the “hot products” listed above, many are featured in the Black Friday circular (available to Facebook fans); others have been highlighted on the retailer’s social presences as special one-day cyber sales. In the highly competitive toy market and a difficult economy, parents are sure to be searching for the best deals while still fulfilling their children’s wish list. Toys “R” Us’ sneak peak undoubtedly generated additional Black Friday buzz for the store, which may result in more toys sold (and longer lines)!
6. Nordstrom
Hot products: coats, gloves, scarf, dress, jacket, beanies, booties, bras, mascaras, heels, watches, trench coat, Bobbi Brown’s Classic, Chanel, Chadwick, Tory Burch, Donna Karan
Nordstrom is one of only two high-end retailers to make this list, quite possibly due to their “anti-marketing marketing campaign,” which is the topic of much discussion on its Facebook page. The retailer’s decision to celebrate “one holiday at a time” has consumers who are looking for an upscale Black Friday shopping experience (read: no Black Friday doorbusters) singing Nordstrom’s praises. Many of the “hot products” listed above are recommended in Nordstrom’s curated, sortable gift guide. For example, Tory Burch is a featured brand; scarves, hats and gloves are “favorite gifts;” and Bobbi Brown’s ‘Classic To Go’ palette is one of a select group of gifts for $25 or less.
7. PetSmart
Instead of “hot products,” PetSmart resulted in a group of hot topics: Contest, win, PetSmart promo, special promotion, hurry claim, vote dog
PetSmart recently ran a Halloween photo contest for pets on its Facebook page that generated a great deal of online discussion. At the same time the company announced contest winners, it posted details about its Thanksgiving trivia game, “Feast of Fun” and released details about its pre-Black Friday promotion. Deal forums and other communities across the web often feature “promotion” categories alongside “contest” categories. Deal-seeker audiences are highly active on social platforms and are motivated by a wide range of brand offers and activities that result in sales and free products. For PetSmart, it was a smart move to flood the audience with news about recent contests, promotions and deals.
8. Foot Locker
Hot products: Nike Air, Nike Hyperdunk, Jordans, Adidas, Nike_Zoom
Foot Locker’s hot products list is dominated by Nike. This makes sense as Foot Locker is planning to re-release the Air Jordan Retro III in the “Black/Cement” color at midnight on Friday. The release of the Air Jordan Retro III “Black/Cement” color is of particular significance to sneakerheads as it’s the third re-release of the design since the original came out in 1988. This shoe is sure to sell out as we’ve witnessed collectors search online and tune to Foot Locker’s social channels regarding the release. In sneaker culture, the ‘what, when, and where’ is often shared over social networks as both fans and speculators search for product. Sneakerheads move fast, chasing limited supply, and the after-market relies on social to spread the word.
9. Kohls
Hot products: Clothes, socks
Black Friday chatter is centered around Kohls’ Black Friday television commercial. There’s a ton of negative commentary about the commercial on Facebook, Twitter and beyond. It turned out to be an incredibly controversial ad and the chatter is nonstop. Take a look at this small sampling of @replies from the Kohls Twitter handle:
While those unhappy with the retailer’s Black Friday commercial are certainly making the most noise online this week, the tried and true Kohls shoppers don’t appear to be deterred. They are still buzzing about coming specials and the hot topics of clothes and socks reflect the continued interest in Kohls staples that customers seek.
10. Newton Holding (Neiman’s)
Hot products: Sweater, shirt, necklace, pearls, dress, earrings, boots
Neiman Marcus does a great job of continuously keeping fans up to date with regard to fashion trends and beyond. For Black Friday promotions, Neiman’s remains true to its luxury brand status and focuses on specialized product offerings leading up to the big day, rather than sale details.
In addition, Neiman’s has remained tremendously engaged with fans on social media platforms over the past several weeks. It’s business as usual between Neiman Marcus and its fans, which speaks to the broad range of “hot products” noted in the data.
Although it’s been “business as usual” between Neiman’s and its customers, the retailer has been the source of many social media conversations around Black Friday. Most of these discussions position Neiman Marcus on the opposite of the spectrum, far from the other companies on this list opening doors in the wee hours of the morning.
What does it all mean?
Black Friday is perhaps the most analyzed retail sales day of the year. It spawns countless hours of T.V. commentary and endless words in blogs, newspapers, Facebook updates and Twitter messages. This exercise has proven that the Social Business Index can bring a new lens to the discussion – showing consumer perspectives on key operating issues long before the day even begins. We’re looking forward to seeing how it all plays out in the check-out lines, on Facebook, the Wall Street tickers and beyond.
A huge thanks to our members of our product team for helping collect, process, and refine the data: Jacob Perkins, Tim Potter, Ray Renteria, Roger Cauvin, and Jason Westigard.
